Exchange rates in nineteenth‐century Brazil: An econometric model
构建了一个十九世纪下半叶巴西汇率的计量模型，发现购买力平价不足以解释汇率行为，汇率明显受咖啡出口收入影响，并讨论了工业化与外部部门的关系。
Abstract This paper develops a model for the exchange rate in Brazil during the second half of the nineteenth century. The exchange rate discussion has a bearing in the sources of industrialization in Brazil. Two explanations stem from a primary export base. Whereas the ‘adverse shock argument’ links industrialization to unfavorable conditions in the external sector and exchange devaluations, the alternative approach views industrialization from the standpoint of the growth of income brought by the rise in exports. Those mechanisms are discussed. Also considered are the effects of monetary policy and the behavior of wages. The evidence shows that purchasing power parity is not enough to explain the exchange rate behavior, which clearly responded to coffee export revenues. Notes Boston University. I am indebted to Eustáquio Reis and Rudiger Dornbusch for their suggestions and comments.