Trading as Gambling
研究发现，美国多州彩票头奖增加时，股市小额交易参与度显著下降；加州和德国折扣经纪客户的交易频率在彩票奖金更高时也降低，表明投资者在彩票和金融市场投机之间存在替代行为。
This paper offers evidence from three different samples consistent with investors substituting between playing the lottery and gambling in financial markets. In the United States, increases in the jackpots of the multistate lotteries Powerball and Mega Millions are associated with significant reductions in small trade participation in the stock market. California-based discount brokerage clients and German discount brokerage clients are significantly less likely to trade during weeks with larger lottery prizes in the California and German lotteries, respectively. Variation in lottery prizes affects speculative trading in more lottery-like securities such as individual stocks and options, but not trading in bonds and mutual funds. Trading that is likely associated with long-term savings motives, such as trading in retirement accounts, does not respond to lottery jackpots, either. The negative relation between trading activity and jackpots is stronger for individuals who are more likely to play the lottery. This paper was accepted by Brad Barber, finance.