Currency Substitution, the Exchange Rate, and the Real Interest Rate (Non) Differential: Shipping the Bad Money In: Note
提出一种长期汇率决定理论，纳入货币替代行为，重新审视货币需求参数在汇率决定中的作用，假设部分货币持有者是替代者。
lntroduction Much of the research attention devoted to exchange rate determination has had its basis in what has come to be termed the monetary approach to the exchange rate (Frenkel 1976, Bilson 1978). That is, the exchange rate is viewed as the relative price of two monies with its equilibrium value defined to be that which causes the existing stocks of the two monies to be willingly held. These endeavors have in common the notion of a stable money demand function, whereby real money demands are influenced in a systematic and predictable fashion by a relatively few variables. This paper presents a long-term theory of exchange rate determination incorporating currency substitution behavior. This integration is not novel (Calvo and Rodriguez 1977, King, Putnam and Wilford 1978, and Girton and Roper 1981). However, existing integrations incompletely specify the modus operandi of such behavior. In so doing, they obscure the roles played by certain money demand parameters in exchange rate determination. The analysis reexamines the roles played by generally accepted money demand parameters in exchange rate determination under the assumption that a subset of money holders are substituting agents.