An Evaluation of M1 Forecasting Errors by the Federal Reserve Staff in the 1970s: Note
评估了1971-77年间美联储工作人员对M1月度预测的误差大小和来源，判断预测不准是否导致货币政策失控。
1. lntroduction This paper examines the magnitude and source(s) of the monthly errors in forecasts of M1 by the staff of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (staff hereafter) for the 1971-77 period.l The evaluation of the staff's forecast accuracy provides information on (a) the predictive power of the staff's approach, and (b) the extent to which the failure of the Federal Reserve to exercise monetary control in the 1970s was due to poor forecasting performance of the staff.