A Compromise Estimate of German Net National Product, 1851–1913, and its Implications for Growth and Business Cycles
基于霍夫曼等人的四个估计，重新计算工业生产、投资和资本收入，得出德国1851-1913年国民生产净值的折衷序列，发现经济活动高于旧估计，平均增长率更低，商业周期持续五年，早期波动大，且典型的繁荣后长期衰退模式未被证实。
We develop a compromise estimate of the German Net National Product for the years 1851–1913 based on four estimates from Hoffmann (1965) and Hoffmann and Müller (1959) by recalculating industrial production, investment, home and foreign capital income. Because differences remain during the early decades, we compute a weighted average compromise series. Economic activity is shown to be higher than the older estimates suggest. The average growth rate is lower. The average business cycle lasted five years, with high volatility in the early decades. The typical Gründerzeit pattern of boom then prolonged recession after 1873 can not be confirmed.