An Econometric Analysis of the Old-Age Security Motive for Childbearing
构建了一个内生切换的生育间隔回归模型，检验Mead Cain关于父母生育决策源于养老保障的词典式偏好的观点，利用马来西亚数据估计模型，发现养老保障是尚未达到足够子女数的父母的主要关注点，但替代性养老支持的收入效应对后续生育的影响不明确。
A switching regression for birth interval lengths with endogenous switching is developed to test Mead Cains contention that parents fertility decisions arise from lexicographic preferences for old-age security. The model is estimated as a survival model using Malaysian data. Assuming that contraceptors constitute the group of parents who have attained the minimal number of children with which they feel their old-age support is secure strong support for Cains concept of old-age security as the principal interest of those parents who have not yet attained a sufficient number of children appears in these data. However the income effect accompanying the provision of alternative means of old-age support generates an ambiguous effect on subsequent fertility. (EXCERPT)