The Earnings Effects of Multilateral Trade Liberalization: Implications for Poverty
结合国际消费分析与印尼家庭调查数据，发现多边贸易自由化对印尼贫困的影响因群体而异：短期自雇农户贫困率微升，长期所有阶层贫困率下降，且他国改革降低印尼贫困，印尼自身自由化则相反。
Most researchers examining poverty and \n multilateral trade liberalization have had to examine \n average, or per capita effects, suggesting that if per \n capita real income rises, poverty will fall. This inference \n can be misleading. Combining results from a new \n international cross-section consumption analysis with \n earnings data from household surveys, this article analyzes \n the implications of multilateral trade liberalization for \n poverty in Indonesia. It finds that the aggregate reduction \n in Indonesia's national poverty headcount following \n global trade liberalization masks a more complex set of \n impacts across groups. In the short run the poverty \n headcount rises slightly for self-employed agricultural \n households, as agricultural profits fail to keep up with \n increases in consumer prices. In the long run the poverty \n headcount falls for all earnings strata, as increased demand \n for unskilled workers lifts incomes for the formerly \n self-employed, some of whom move into the wage labor market. \n A decomposition of the poverty changes in Indonesia \n associated with different countries' trade policies \n finds that reform in other countries leads to a reduction in \n poverty in Indonesia but that liberalization of \n Indonesia's trade policies leads to an increase. The \n method used here can be readily extended to any of the other \n 13 countries in the sample.