Fertility and Savings in the United States: 1830-1900
用生命周期模型解释19世纪美国储蓄率上升，发现1830-1900年间储蓄率6个百分点的增长中约四分之一可归因于抚养比下降。
A long tradition in the development literature has been to associate the aggregate savings rate with the dependency ratio, the ratio of dependent children to adults. In this paper I formalize the relationship by developing a life-cycle model in which offspring are assets from the viewpoint of their parents. The model is used to help explain the increase in nineteenth-century U.S. savings rates. I find that between 1830 and 1900 about one-quarter of the 6-percentage-point rise in the savings rate can be attributed to a decline in the dependency rate.