On Evaluating the Importance of Nonlinearity in Large Macroeconometric Models
指出确定性求解方法在非线性模型中会产生有偏预测，提出两种检验方法，发现英国两个大型宏观模型存在显著非线性效应。
Most model builders continue to treat their models as deterministic when forecasting, despite the fact that these models are composed of equations which are stochastic in nature. Deterministic solution methods ignore the stochastic information on the model structure and in addition produce biased forecasts in non-linear models. It is therefore important to investigate whether a given model is significantly non-linear. After commenting on the poor simulation methodology employed in a number of earlier studies, we find significant non-linear effects in two large macro models of the United Kingdom economy. This is confirmed by two tests that we propose for assessing the importance of non-linearity in such models.(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)