Dynamics of Canadian Deposit-Taking Institutions: Comment
评论Raj、Kirkham和Clarke关于加拿大存款机构调整速度的研究,指出其马尔可夫过程应用不当,认为十年期足以让机构适应立法变化。
IN a recent article in this journal, Raj, Kirkham, and Clarke [I979] (henceforth RKC) conclude that ten-year period between the Bank Act revisions does not appear to be sufficiently long to allow the Canadian deposittaking institutions fully to adjust to legislative changes [p. I87]. That conclusion, however, stems from an inappropriate application of the theory of Markov processes. Specifically, in investigating the evolution of their Markov process over time, they implicitly start the process at an unrealistic starting point. In fact, for the period they consider, ten years is adequate to allow the institutions to adjust to legislative changes, and their model suggests a rather rapid convergence of deposit shares towards their predicted long-run equilibrium values. The first section of this note reviews RKC's Markovian approach and defines the required notation. The second section analyzes their discussion of the system's adjustment towards equilibrium.