Pricing and Storage of Field Crops: A Quarterly Model Applied to Soybeans
构建了一个季度模型，分析竞争性储存在年度收获作物市场中的配置作用，并应用于美国大豆市场，揭示理性价格预期等季度变量的分布及其受持有成本变化的影响。
This paper considers the role of competitive storage in markets for annually harvested field crops. A quarterly model is presented that considers the allocative role of storage both within and between crop years. Rational price expectations are endogenous variables calculated by a recursive method. Forward stochastic simulations using the model generate data that can be used to characterize the distributions of the variables. In the base case, the model is assigned parameter values from a quarterly econometric model of the U.S. soybean market. The results shed light on the distributions of the quarterly variables, including the rational price expectations, and show how these distributions are affected by changes in the carrying charge.