Pareto Optimal Trade in an Uncertain World: GMOs and the Precautionary Principle
用Gilboa-Schmeidler最大最小期望效用模型分析不确定世界中的最优贸易政策，发现当一国先验集是另一国子集时，帕累托最优要求该国承担全部不确定性，且若先验集更广的贸易伙伴选择或拥有非随机技术，自给自足是帕累托最优。
Optimal trade policy in an uncertain world is examined. Decision‐maker attitudes toward uncertainty are represented in terms of the Gilboa‐Schmeidler (1989) maximin expected‐utility (MMEU) model. The central result is that in a two‐country, general‐equilibrium setting with both trading partners possessing an MMEU preference structure, Pareto optimality can require one trading partner to absorb all uncertainty in the economy if its set of priors is a subset of its trading partners. An immediate corollary is that autarky is Pareto optimal if the trading partner with the more inclusive set of priors either chooses or is endowed with a nonstochastic technology.