Seniority, Sectoral Decline, and Employee Retention: An Analysis of Layoff Unemployment Spells
利用1982-83年面板数据，分析裁员失业期间资历对员工召回概率的影响，发现行业就业下滑会削弱资历的正向作用，支持企业违约延迟支付合同的解释。
The authors investigate the effect of tenure on employee retention under varying labor market conditions. Using a competing risks analysis of recall and new job acceptance applied to layoff unemployment spell data from waves fifteen and sixteen (1982-83) of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, they find that adverse conditions (sectoral employment decline) significantly reduce the positive tenure effect on recall probabilities. This result is consistent with firm default on delayed payment contracts and does not appear to reflect the effect of technological change on the value of firm-specific investments. Copyright 1996 by University of Chicago Press.