Exchange-Rate Volatility and Foreign Trade: Evidence From Thirteen LDC's
用1973-1996年季度数据，研究13个欠发达国家实际汇率波动对出口的影响，发现汇率不确定性在短期和长期都显著抑制出口需求。
Abstract This article investigates empirically the impact of real exchange-rate volatility on the export flows of 13 less developed countries (LDC's) over the quarterly period 1973–1996. Estimates of the cointegrating relations are obtained using Johansen's multivariate procedure. Estimates of the short-run dynamics are obtained for each country using the error-correction technique. The major results show that increases in the volatility of the real effective exchange rate, approximating exchange-rate uncertainty, exert a significant negative effect on export demand in both the short-run and the long-run in each of the 13 LDC's. These effects may result in significant reallocation of resources by market participants. KEY WORDS: Exchange-rate variabilityExportsError-correction modelLess developed countries