Commodity cycles as random processes
研究发现中央计划经济与市场经济中生猪生产的周期波动在变异性和周期长度上高度相似，并通过包含理性预期、滞后生产函数和随机冲击的简单模型提供解释。
Cyclical behaviours of hog production in centrally planned and market economies are shown to be quite similar in terms of variability and cycle length. A possible explanation can be made in terms of some simple models that incorporate a form of rational expectations, a lagged production function, and some particular types of random shocks. After presenting a family of such models, the special conditions linking such models to actual production behaviour are analyzed.