A Bayesian Approach to Explaining Sequential Adoption of Components of a Technological Package
提出一个行为模型，用贝叶斯学习解释农户为何分步采用农业技术包中的部分组件，而非一次性全盘接受。
Abstract Agricultural innovations are often promoted as a package—a new seed variety, a recommended fertilizer application, and other recommended cultivation practices. Nevertheless, many farmers adopt pieces of the package rather than the whole, in a sequential fashion. This paper presents a behavioral model which explains sequential adoption as a consequence of learning by adopting farmers. In order to learn more about the entire technological package, the farmer may adopt a part of the package. The model is shown to be consistent with observed patterns of sequential adoption.