Technological Discontinuities and Dominant Designs: A Cyclical Model of Technological Change
提出技术变革的循环模型，认为技术突破引发激烈变异与选择，最终形成主导设计，随后进入渐进改进期。对水泥、玻璃和小型计算机行业的纵向研究表明，主导设计出现后销售达到峰值，且不连续性本身不会成为主导设计。
The authors thank Eric Abrahamson, Warren Boeker, Donald Hambrick, and three anonymous reviewers for their assistance. An evolutionary model of technological change is proposed in which a technological breakthrough, or discontinuity, initiates an era of intense technical variation and selection, culminating in a single dominant design. This era of ferment is followed by a period of incremental technical progress, which may be broken by a subsequent technological discontinuity. A longitudinal study of the cement (1888-1980), glass (1893-1980), and minicomputer (1958-1982) industries indicates that when patents are not a significant factor, a technological discontinuity is generally followed by a single standard. Across these diverse product classes, sales always peak after a dominant design emerges. Discontinuities never become dominant designs, and dominant designs lag behind the industry's technical frontier. Both the length of the era of ferment and the type of firm inaugurating a standard are contingent on how the discontinuity affects existing competences. Eras of ferment account for the majority of observed technical progress across these three industries.'