Permanent and Transitory Shocks in Real Output: Estimates from Nineteenth-Century and Postwar Economies
用十个国家的数据重新检验了Blanchard和Quah（1989）的总供给/需求模型对产出冲击的解释，发现战后数据支持该模型，但19世纪数据不支持。
This paper reexamines Olivier J. Blanchard and Danny Quah's (1989) aggregate supply/demand model interpretation of output shocks using data from ten countries. Although postwar data support their interpretation, the model is not supported by nineteenth=century data. In the postwar period, permanent output shocks cause the price level to move in the opposite direction (like supply shocks) and temporary output shocks cause the price level to move in the same direction (like demand shocks). But with pre-World War I data, permanent output shocks typically cause price level movements in the same direction. The results are systematic and cannot be explained by data problems.