Risk Analysis of Tillage Alternatives with Government Programs
用随机优势方法分析传统耕作与免耕在五种轮作下的风险，发现风险规避者偏好传统耕作的小麦-高粱-休闲系统，政府补贴通常不鼓励免耕。
Abstract Stochastic dominance analysis of two tillage systems, conventional tillage and no‐tillage, for five crop rotations, wheat‐fallow, grain sorghum‐fallow, continuous wheat, continuous grain sorghum, and wheat‐grain sorghum‐fallow, shows that risk‐averse managers prefer a conventional tillage wheat‐sorghum‐fallow system. Small changes in production costs or yields lead to indifference between this system and the no‐tillage wheat‐sorghum‐fallow and no‐till and conventional wheat‐fallow systems. Participation in the basic government commodity program generally increases average net returns and lowers variation of returns. Government commodity program payments calculated under a variety of scenarios do not generally encourage the use of no‐till practices for grain sorghum and wheat in the central Great Plains.