Are `Rational Conjectures' Rational?
批判性审视“理性猜想”与“合理猜想”概念，指出其依赖一个看不见的非优化“机械降神”，因此不适合理解优化企业间的竞争；同时证明伯特兰猜想是局部理性猜想变分这一广泛声称是错误的。
The concepts of "rational conjectures" and "reasonable conjectures" are cr itically reviewed. It is shown that their operation depends crucially on an invisible, nonoptimizing "deus ex machina." Hence, these con cepts are not really suitable for understanding competition among opt imizing firms. In addition, the widely claimed "fact" that Bertrand conjectures are locally rational conjectural variations is shown to be erroneous. Copyright 1987 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd.