Exchange Rate Volatility and U. S. Monetary Policy: An ARCH Application
研究美国货币政策制度变化对汇率随机过程的影响，使用ARCH模型分析名义美元汇率，发现考虑制度转换能改善模型拟合，并降低方差的持续性。
This paper examines the effect of shifts in U.S. monetary policy regimes on the stochastic process that generates foreign exchange rates. To account for the observed behavior of the data record, the author models nominal, dollar exchange rates as univariate autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic processes. He then tests the stability of this process across U.S. monetary policy regimes. For four of the currencies in the sample, accounting for regime shifts improves the fit of the model. Regime shifts also appear to diminish the degree of persistence of variance, making it less likely that exchange rates are integrated-in-variance. Copyright 1989 by Ohio State University Press.