The impact of changes in human fertility on poverty
利用发展中国家和转型经济体的家庭调查数据,估计生育率(扣除婴儿死亡后的粗出生率)对私人消费贫困的影响。跨国回归表明,高生育率通过拖累经济增长和恶化收入分配两种渠道加剧贫困。
Household survey data for developing and transitional economies are used to estimate the effect of fertility (crude birth rate net of infant deaths) on private consumption poverty. Cross-national regressions indicate that higher fertility increases poverty both by retarding economic growth and by skewing distribution against the poor. Our median country in 1980 had 'dollar-a-day' poverty incidence of 18.9 per cent; had it reduced its fertility by four per 1, 000 throughout the 1980s (the sample median fall), it is estimated that incidence would have been reduced to 13.9 per cent, the growth and distribution effects being roughly equally responsible for this reduction.