Export instability and the domestic economy: Questions of causality
用格兰杰因果检验考察20个贸易依赖国家的数据，发现出口不稳定会引发国内收入的短期不稳定，反驳了此前实证结论不明确的状况。
The conventional view concerning the impact of export instability on the domestic economies of developing countries is one of pessimism. Export instability is thought to adversely affect the short‐run stability and longer‐run growth of income. Empirical evidence on these matters is, however, inconclusive. This article applies a Granger/Sims reduced form approach to examining whether export instability generates short‐run instability in domestic income. For each of a sample of 20 trade‐dependent countries the results obtained strongly support the contention that export instability induces short‐run macroeconomic instability.