Why the Latin American Countries will Never Form a Debtors' Cartel
研究发现拉美借款国的贸易顺差与资本账户呈正非线性关系，多数国家有非对抗性政策选择，因此债务国卡特尔难以形成，且建议债务违约的规则具有误导性。
SUMMARY It is shown that there is a positive non‐linear relationship between a Latin American borrower country's trade surplus and its service and capital accounts, and therefore the balance of payments. Pooled regressions are used to test quadratic and semi‐logarithmic specifications. Most large or medium‐size countries either are able to choose between a range of sensible, non‐confrontational policy options, or especial characteristics apply to them; thus the scope for a debtors' cartel is very poor. The default rule that recommends debt repudiation if new loans are lower than payments on old ones is found to be misleading.