Assessing the Effects of Hazards and Interventions on Farm Household Liquidity in Sudan ‐ A Preliminary Accounting Model
以苏丹科尔多凡地区一个贫困农户为例，构建债务/储蓄模型，研究环境冲击和不同干预措施对家庭现金和资产流动性的影响，发现若无外部技术或汇款注入，即使有正规信贷，农户也会陷入债务螺旋。
The informed assessment of the effects of hazards on farm households and the design of appropriate interventions requires a knowledge of the pattern of household cash and asset stocks and flows. This paper uses the example of a poor farm household in Kordofan, Sudan to build a debt/savings model and then study the effects of environmental “shocks” and different forms of interventions. The results suggest that, in the absence of external injection in the form of technological improvement or worker remittances, over the period 1988–1992, households would have descended into a debt spiral, even with formal credit. With income improvements solvency would have only been ensured if formal credit had been available. Although more work needs to be done to increase the validity of such “accounting” models of farm household liquidity, this study has established a methodology which can be improved upon and applied elsewhere.