Predicting the Diffusion of Improved Pastures in Uruguay
研究显示乌拉圭施肥草场的扩散遵循逻辑曲线，牛肉和化肥价格影响扩散速率和上限，预测1980年草场面积占比达12%。
Abstract Research suggests the logistic curve is the characteristic diffusion path for new technologies. Econometric analysis of fertilized grass‐legume pastures in Uruguay indicated that their diffusion during the first years following introduction also followed a logistic path. Some departure from a simple logistic shape was explained by including beef and fertilizer prices within the diffusion framework. Both the rate and limit of diffusion were positively related to changes in the technology's profitability, but the estimated price elasticity of each was low. Extrapolation predicted that a ceiling equal to 12% of Uruguayan pasture area would be reached in 1980.