The Empirics of International Currencies: Network Externalities, History and Persistence
利用19世纪末英镑主导国际货币体系时的数据，检验了国际货币地位的实证决定因素，支持搜索理论模型，并发现战略外部性和持续性的证据，但拒绝纯粹路径依赖观点，认为即使没有一战，美元也注定超越英镑。
Using a new database for the late nineteenth century, when the pound sterling was the world's leading international currency, this article provides evidence on the empirical determinants of international currency status. We report evidence in favour of the search-theoretic models to international currencies. Using a microeconomic model of currency choice, we provide empirical support to strategic externalities. We find strong confirmation of the existence of persistence, but reject the view that the international monetary system was subject to pure path dependency and lock-in effects, suggesting that, even in the absence of WWI, the USD was bound to overtake sterling. Copyright © The Author(s). Journal compilation © Royal Economic Society 2009.