Term Premium Determinants, Return Enhancement and Interest Rate Predictability
研究简单的期限溢价估计技术能否增强固定收益组合的回报并预测短期利率，基于1959-93年美国短期国债数据，发现这些知识有助于提升回报，且利率预测略优于其他方法。
This paper investigates whether simple term premium estimation techniques provide potential for return enhancement and interest rate predictability. Using short‐term US government securities, during 1959—93, it is demonstrated that utilization of such knowledge allows investors to enhance returns on fixed income portfolios, provided that other than money market alternatives can be considered as potential repositories of funds. In addition, such knowledge yielded short‐term interest rate predictions that were weakly superior to other methodologies, including the naive no‐change forecast, except during the volatile early 1980s.