The Problem of Passive Observation
重新解读哈维尔莫关于“事实影响”与“潜在影响”的讨论，阐明其如何为理解实验室外的测量提供框架，对计量经济学方法论和科学哲学研究者有参考价值。
Trygve Haavelmo's methodological manifesto “The Probability Approach in Econometrics” not only laid down the paradigm for the research pursued at the Cowles Commission, but also sets out a strategy for measurement outside the laboratory. His conceptualization of “passive observation” is still very useful for understanding measurements where intervention is not possible. Haavelmo's classic is very rich: it provided the framework for introducing probabilistic methods in econometrics and a profound discussion on invariance (autonomy). These subjects are well treated by various historians of econometrics. This does not, however, apply to the problem of passive observation. It is only mentioned, if it is mentioned at all, in relation to the discussion of autonomy, but that is it. This essay will give a reconstruction of his discussion of “factual” and “potential” influences, which provided Haavelmo the framework to discuss “Nature's experiments” and will allow us to discuss measurement outside the laboratory more generally.