Measuring state dependence in individual poverty histories when there is feedback to employment status and household composition
指出传统模型假设变量严格外生，但贫困历史会影响就业和家庭构成，因此开发了允许反馈效应的新模型，并用德国数据证明忽略反馈会导致状态依赖性估计偏误。
Abstract This paper argues that the assumption of strict exogeneity, which is usually invoked in estimating models of state dependence with unobserved heterogeneity, is violated in the poverty context as important variables determining contemporaneous poverty status, in particular employment status and household composition, are likely to be influenced by past poverty outcomes. Therefore, a model of state dependence is developed that explicitly allows for possible feedback effects from past poverty to future employment and household composition outcomes. Empirical results based on data from the German Socio‐Economic Panel (GSOEP) suggest that there are indeed such feedback effects and that failure to take them into account may lead to biased estimates of the state dependence effect. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.