POPULATION DYNAMICS AND MILK SUPPLY RESPONSE IN THE US LAKE STATES
构建了奶牛种群和牛奶供给的动态模型，应用于美国湖区各州，发现价格对奶牛数量的动态影响模式因价格而异，短期牛奶供给对市场价格缺乏弹性，需至少7年持续变化才能获得弹性响应。
This paper develops a dynamic model of a dairy cow population and of milk supply response. When applied to the US Lake States, the model provides evidence against the Nerlovian model. It suggests that the pattern of dynamic effects of prices on cow numbers varies for different prices. The estimated dynamic supply elasticities provide some useful information on the nature of dairy production adjustments. For example, the response of milk supply to market prices is found to be very inelastic in the short run. It takes at least 7 years of sustained change to obtain an elastic response to milk price. Also, feed price and slaughter cow price are found to have smaller effects on dairy supply than milk price, but larger effects than risk, hay price or capital cost.