Fiscal union in Europe? Redistributive and stabilizing effects of a European tax-benefit system and fiscal equalization mechanism
利用11个欧元区国家的微观数据模拟欧洲税收福利体系和财政均等化机制，发现欧洲体系能显著再分配收入并吸收10-15%的宏观冲击，但财政均等化的稳定效果不确定。
The current debt crisis has given rise to a debate concerning deeper fiscal integration in Europe. The view is widespread that moving towards a ‘fiscal union’ would have stabilizing effects in case of macroeconomic shocks. We study the economic effects of introducing two elements of a fiscal union: an EU-wide tax and transfer system and a fiscal equalization mechanism. Using the European tax-benefit calculator EUROMOD, we exploit representative household micro data from 11 eurozone countries to simulate these policy reforms and study their effects on the income distribution and automatic stabilizers. We find that replacing one third of the national tax-benefit systems with a European system would lead to significant redistributive effects both within and across countries. These effects depend on income levels and the structures of existing national systems. The EU system would particularly improve fiscal stabilization in credit constrained countries absorbing 10–15% of a macroeconomic income shock. Introducing a fiscal equalization mechanism would redistribute revenues from high to low income countries. However, the stabilization properties of this system are ambiguous. The results suggest that it might be necessary for Europe to explore alternative ways of improving macroeconomic stability without redistributing income ex ante.