Historical Presidential Betting Markets
分析了1868年至1940年间美国总统选举博彩市场，发现其在科学民调出现前能准确预测选举结果，市场效率较高，并探讨了其消失原因及对当下的启示。
This paper analyzes the large and often well-organized markets for betting on U.S. presidential elections that operated between 1868 and 1940. Four main points are addressed. First, we show that the market did a remarkable job forecasting elections in an era before scientific polling. Second, the market was fairly efficient, despite the limited information of participants and active attempts to manipulate the odds. Third, we argue political betting markets disappeared largely because of the rise of scientific polls and the increasing availability of other forms of gambling. Finally, we discuss lessons this experience provides for the present.