Terrorism and Foreign Direct Investment in Spain and Greece
提出时间序列方法量化恐怖袭击对净外国直接投资的影响，发现西班牙和希腊的恐怖活动每年分别导致净外国直接投资减少13.5%和11.9%，表明持续恐怖威胁会抑制小国投资与增长。
This paper puts forward a time-series methodology for quantifying the impact that terrorist incidents have had on net foreign direct investment. For Spain, a transfer function is used for quantification purposes, while, for Greece, a VAR model is employed. Terrorism had a significant and persistent negative impact on net foreign direct investment--a year's worth of terrorism discouraged net foreign direct investment by 13.5 percent annually in Spain and by 11.9 percent annually in Greece. The cumulative effect on foreign-held capital is indicated. It shows that smaller countries that face a persistent threat of terrorism may incur economic costs in the form of reduced investment and growth. Copyright 1996 by WWZ and Helbing & Lichtenhahn Verlag AG