Measurement Problems of Inflation Disaggregation
解释了为何基于相同价格数据构建的三个季度GNP通胀指标差异巨大,指出原因是产品构成季度性变化,并论证了链式价格指数优于隐含平减指数和固定权重指数。
Why do the three quarterly GNP inflation measures differ so much when they are constructed from the same underlying price data? Algebraically and in tables using data of the second quarter of 1984, it is shown that these differences occur because of quarterly shifts in the composition of the nation's product. Disaggregation of the inflation contributions of the GNP components also makes it clear why, for quarterly analyses, the GNP chain price index is superior to both the implicit GNP deflator and the fixed-weight GNP price index. In particular, the implicit GNP deflator can give severely distorted inflation signals.