Habit Persistence, Asset Returns, and the Business Cycle
在标准真实经济周期模型中引入习惯偏好和两部门技术,解释了无风险利率、股权溢价和夏普比率等资产价格特征,并改进了对经济周期中产出持续性、就业联动和消费敏感性的解释。
Two modifications are introduced into the standard real-business-cycle model: habit preferences and a two-sector technology with limited intersectoral factor mobility. The model is consistent with the observed mean risk-free rate, equity premium, and Sharpe ratio on equity. In addition, its business-cycle implications represent a substantial improvement over the standard model. It accounts for persistence in output, comovement of employment across different sectors over the business cycle, the evidence of “excess sensitivity” of consumption growth to output growth, and the “inverted leading-indicator property of interest rates,” that interest rates are negatively correlated with future output.