A Comparison of Sales Response Predictions From Demand Models Applied to Store-Level versus Panel Data
研究比较了使用门店级和消费者级数据的需求模型在促销销售响应预测上的准确性，发现一种随机系数模型在门店级数据上预测更准。
In order to generate sales promotion response predictions, marketing analysts estimate demand models using either disaggregated (consumer-level) or aggregated (store-level) scanner data. Comparison of predictions from these demand models is complicated by the fact that models may accommodate different forms of consumer heterogeneity depending on the level of data aggregation. This study shows via simulation that demand models with various heterogeneity specifications do not produce more accurate sales response predictions than a homogeneous demand model applied to store-level data, with one major exception: a random coefficients model designed to capture within-store heterogeneity using store-level data produced significantly more accurate sales response predictions (as well as better fit) compared to other model specifications. An empirical application to the paper towel product category adds additional insights. This article has supplementary material online.