Reproductive Behaviour in Peasant Societies: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis
推导了家庭在生育决策中的最优停止规则，并用1977-1978年孟加拉国农户数据验证了该规则，发现家庭会替换死亡子女直至达到理想存活子女数。
An optimal policy is derived for a sequential family size decision making problem. It is shown that households will follow a stopping rule, replacing dead children until an optimal number of living children is reached. The behavioural equation derived from the optimal policy is then used to explain retrospective household data collected in Bangladesh in 1977–1978. This data provides some support for the underlying hypothesis.