Are There Hot Hands Among Mutual Fund Houses in Hong Kong?
研究1986年1月至1995年12月间香港32家基金公司的短期业绩持续性，发现仅有两家存在热手现象，但月度连续获胜的条件概率与无条件概率高度相关。
This paper examines the short‐term performance persistence of thirty‐two fund houses in Hong Kong during January 1986 to December 1995. We compute fund house returns using averages of all equity funds in each house. Then we evaluate their hot hand performance using the median return as benchmark on a rolling monthly basis. The results show that there were only two ‘hot hand’ fund houses. Findings using annual returns confirm the non‐existence of a hot hand phenomenon. However, we find a strong correlation between conditional and unconditional probabilities of winning repeatedly in consecutive months