单位根过程的状态空间规范型

A STATE SPACE CANONICAL FORM FOR UNIT ROOT PROCESSES

Econometric Theory · 2012
被引 22
人大 A-ABS 4

中文导读

提出了一种规范的状态空间表示,用于处理具有任意单位根频率和整数积分阶数的ARMA过程,并给出了多项式协整的新定义,有助于单位根和协整分析及伪极大似然估计。

Abstract

In this paper we develop a canonical state space representation of autoregressive moving average (ARMA) processes with unit roots with integer integration orders at arbitrary unit root frequencies. The developed representation utilizes a state process with a particularly simple dynamic structure, which in turn renders this representation highly suitable for unit root, cointegration, and polynomial cointegration analysis. We also propose a new definition of polynomial cointegration that overcomes limitations of existing definitions and extends the definition of multicointegration for I(2) processes of Granger and Lee (1989a, Journal of Applied Econometrics 4, 145–159). A major purpose of the canonical representation for statistical analysis is the development of parameterizations of the sets of all state space systems of a given system order with specified unit root frequencies and integration orders. This is, e.g., useful for pseudo maximum likelihood estimation. In this respect an advantage of the state space representation, compared to ARMA representations, is that it easily allows one to put in place restrictions on the (co)integration properties. The results of the paper are exemplified for the cases of largest interest in applied work.

单位根过程状态空间规范型多项式协整ARMA模型