3%赤字/GDP马斯特里赫特'参数'的神话(或谬误)

The myth (or folly) of the 3% deficit/GDP Maastricht 'parameter'

Cambridge Journal of Economics · 1998
被引 145
人大 A-ABS 3

中文导读

用代数与几何方法定义了公共财政可持续区域的边界,指出马斯特里赫特条约中60%债务/GDP和3%赤字/GDP只是边界上的一个点,并基于1996年OECD数据发现除比利时和意大利外所有主要欧洲国家均处于可持续区域之外,与普遍看法相反。

Abstract

A relation is presented defining the boundary, algebraically and geometrically, to the sustainability area of public finance. The relation (and area) involve three mag nitudes: deficit/GDP, debt/GDP and rate of growth. It is shown that the parameters stated in the famous Annex to the Maastricht Treaty (60% for the debt/GDP ratio and 3% for the deficit/GDP ratio) represent only one particular point on the above mentioned boundary relation to the sustainability area. There exists an infinite number of other points sharing the same characteristics. On the basis of the OECD data referring to the end of 1996, it is shown that all major European countries find themselves outside the sustainability area, except Belgium and Italy, i.e., exactly the opposite of what is widely believed to be the case in current discussions.

马斯特里赫特参数财政可持续性赤字GDP比率债务