Expectations Formation and Business Cycle Fluctuations: An Empirical Analysis of Actual and Expected Output in UK Manufacturing, 1975–1996
利用调查数据中的直接预期指标，对英国制造业八个行业的实际与预期产出建立向量自回归模型，发现考虑测量误差后预期具有理性，并揭示了行业间互动和商业信心对产出波动的重要性。
Direct measures of expectations, derived from survey data, are used in a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model of actual and expected output in eight industries in the UK manufacturing sector. No evidence is found with which to reject rationality in the derived expectations series when measurement error is appropriately taken into account. The VAR analysis illustrates the importance of intersectoral interactions and business confidence in explaining the time profile of industrial outputs, examines the mechanisms by which shocks are propagated across sectors and over time and investigates the relative importance of sectoral and aggregate shocks of different types.