Estimation of Current-Quarter Gross National Product by Pooling Preliminary Labor-Market Data
开发了两种利用劳动力市场数据作为同期国民生产总值（GNP）指标的方法，并比较了使用初步数据与最终数据对预测精度和整合权重的影响。
Two methods of using labor-market data as indicators of contemporaneous gross national product (GNP) are developed. The establishment survey data are used by inverting a partial-adjustment equation for hours. A second GNP forecast can be extracted from the household survey by using Okun's law. Using preliminary rather than final data adds about .2 to .4 percentage point to the expected value of the root mean squared errors and changes the weights that the pooling procedure assigns to the two forecasts. The use of preliminary rather than final data results in a procedure that assigns more importance to the Okun's-law forecast.