Subjective Mortality Risk and Bequests
利用高龄老人面板数据，估计包含遗产动机的生命周期模型，发现基于主观生存率的模型比基于生命表的模型更能预测财富持有，说明主观预期对消费储蓄决策重要，且多数遗产是非自愿的。
This paper investigates the ability of subjective expectations about life expectancy to predict wealth holding patterns in later life. Based on panel data from the Asset and Health Dynamics among the Oldest Old, we estimate a structural life-cycle model with bequests. Each individual's subjective survival rates in the future are estimated with data on his belief of survival probabilities to a target age. This estimation is build upon a Bayesian updating method developed in Gan et al. (2005). We find that life-cycle model using subjective survival rates performs better than using life-table survival rates in predicting wealth holdings. This result suggests that subjective survival expectations play an important role in deciding consumption and savings. In addition, the estimation results show that most bequests are involuntary or accidental.