The limits of business cycle research: assessing the real business cycle model
批判性地审视了真实商业周期模型及其评估策略，综述了支持和反对该模型的文献，并基于多数证据认为该模型已被证伪。
The real business cycle model dominates business cycle research in the new classical tradition. Typically, real business cycle modelers both offer the bold conjecture that business cycles are equilibrium phenomena driven by technology shocks and also novel strategies for assessing the success of the model. This article critically examines the real business model and the assessment strategy, surveys the literature supporting and opposing the model, and evaluates the evidence on the empirical success of the model. It argues that, on the preponderance of the evidence, the real business cycle model is refuted. Copyright 1997 by Oxford University Press.