Informational Content of Government Hogs and Pigs Reports
检验了美国政府季度生猪报告的预测信息对期货交易者的价值，发现报告信息在发布前已反映在期货价格中，对交易者几乎没有价值。
Abstract We examine the value of the informational content of quarterly government reports which estimate forthcoming supplies of hogs and pigs. It is assumed that a hypothetical futures trader obtains the government reports one day in advance of their release. A futures market trading rule is established which uses early access to the reports together with a priori expectations of the reports' contents. We find the market information in the government reports is of little or no value to a futures trader in advance of the release date because this information is already incorporated in the futures price.