More Evidence on the Performance of Merger Simulations
以宝洁收购Tambrands为例，检验并购模拟的准确性。模拟预测价格仅上涨约1%，而实际估计显示价格上涨5-8%，表明模拟可能低估了并购效应。
Merger simulations are commonly used to simulate the effects of potential mergers. Despite the large resources devoted to merger review, little evidence exists on the accuracy of these methods. This paper uses the acquisition of Tambrands by Proctor and Gamble to provide evidence on the efficacy of merger simulation. Two simple demand systems are estimated under several identification assumptions and combined with a static model of price competition. Simulations predict small price effects of about 1 percent for the merging firms' brands, while direct estimates indicate the merger raised prices by 5–8 percent.