US deficit sustainability: a new approach based on multiple endogenous breaks
用带多重内生断点的协整模型和贝叶斯方法，重新检验美国1947-1992年赤字可持续性，发现尽管1970-80年代有结构变化，赤字过程仍是可持续的。
Recent empirical work has questioned the consistency of US fiscal policy with an intertemporal budget constraint. Empirical results have tended to indicate that the deficit process has undergone at least one structural shift during recent decades, with the deficit becoming either unsustainable or sustainable in only a weak sense in the post-shift period. In this paper, we re-examine sustainability using a new approach, based on a cointegration model with multiple endogenous breaks. A Bayesian methodology is applied, incorporating Markov chain Monte Carlo simulators. In contrast to previous analyses, we find evidence of a sustainable deficit process over the 1947–1992 period, despite the occurrence of breaks during the 1970s and 1980s. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.