At Least Do No Harm: The Use of Scarce Data
研究了数据稀缺时如何激励知情专家如实报告观点，并确保不知情专家不损害委托人的原有判断，即使只有单一数据点且专家风险偏好未知。
When data is scarce, it is difficult to screen the opinions of informed and uninformed experts. In spite of this difficulty it is possible to deliver incentives for informed experts to honestly reveal their views, and for uninformed experts to do no harm to a principal in the sense that uninformed experts report the view the principal held originally (i.e., without the expert's report). This follows even if there is only a single data point to evaluate the expert's opinions and the expert's preferences over risk are unknown.