Individual Preferences, Monetary Gambles, and Stock Market Participation: A Case for Narrow Framing
论证窄框架(即孤立评估新赌注)比以往认为的更能解释人们对小额有利赌注的厌恶,并预测何种偏好能解决股市参与谜题。
We argue that framing, whereby an agent who is offered a new gamble evaluates that gamble in isolation, separately from other risks she already faces, may be a more important feature of decision-making than previously realized. Our starting point is the evidence that people are often averse to a small, independent gamble, even when the gamble is actuarially favorable. We find that a surprisingly wide range of utility functions, including many non-expected utility specifications, have trouble explaining this evidence; but that this difficulty can be overcome by allowing for narrow framing. Our analysis makes predictions as to what kinds of preferences can most easily address the stock market participation puzzle, as well as other related financial puzzles. We confirm these predictions in a simple portfolio choice setting.